Water Resources Variability and the Trends in the Tarim River Basin, China

Chen Ya-Ning (¹), Xu Chang-Chun (¹), Hao Xing-Ming (¹)

(1) Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Abstract

Global climate change could have significant impacts on both natural and social systems. Water resources and ecosystems are particularly likely to be affected by climate changes. In the case of large, complex, and heavily modified river systems, such as the Tarim River basin, the potential impacts of climate changes can be understood by detecting the long-term trends of both climatological and hydrological processes. Climate change affects both the total volume and temporal pattern of runoff in the basin. This suggests that hydrological changes caused by any long-term climate change will have ecological and socioeconomic impacts that may affect the management of the water resources.

Located in the arid area of north-western China, Tarim River, about 1,321km long, is the longest continental river in the world. It is composed of three major tributaries, Aqsu River, Yarkand River, and Hotan River. The water resources are mainly fed by glacial - snow melt water, which occupies 48.2% of the total water volume in the basin. The ecological environment in Tarim river basin is extremely vulnerable, the contradiction between the ecological protection and the economic development is increasingly extrusive during the exploitation and utilization of water resources, and the sustainable development of the regional society and economy is seriously restricted. In this paper, the time series periodic variance extrapolation method and time series periodic superpose trend model were introduced. The periods and trend’s change in the last 50 years in the Tarim River basin was analyzed based on the 14 hydrological station’s data. The results showed that the period of Aksu river is 17 years；periods of Hotan river are 10 and 17 years and the period of Yarkand river is 17 years. The period of total surface runoff in headstreams is 17 years, and the period in the hydrological station of Aral, Xinqiman, Yinbaz respective is 21,10 and 7 years. Because of intensive anthropogenic activities, Qial hydrological station has no periodic character. The result of time series periodic superpose trend model reveals the plausible probability that the volume of the total surface runoff of headstreams will decrease in Tarim River basin in the future .Although the consumed water in Tarim river basin can be controlled through some engineering measures, under the situation that the volume of the total surface runoff of headstreams will decrease, so the prospect of Tarim River should be given more attention.